Leon Trotsky: Outline of a Magazine Article

November 15, 1939

[Writing of Leon Trotsky, Vol. 14, New York 1979, p. 845-847]

Twin stars are either of purely optical or of physical character. The question is, do Hitler and Stalin represent a physical or an optical twin star? Hitler insists upon the first, Stalin tries to impose the second. Hitler is right — for the next period we will have a real twin star with Hitler as the main star and Stalin as the satellite.

The fundamental characteristic of the European and thus of the world situation at the present time is that all the bridges to peace have been burned. A long and pitiless war is ahead of us. Just at the moment when the inevitability of such a war became obvious, the Comintern sharply veered in its policies from sugared phrases about the defense of democracy and peace to the slogan, abandoned five years ago, of the world revolution (Molotov, Dimitrov, Browder, etc.). The impression is given that the Kremlin is prepared to use the war, and the upheavals which it will inevitably provoke, for the “Sovietization” of Europe — and not Europe alone. It is precisely this impression which Stalin wishes to spread. It is for this purpose that Dimitrov, Browder, and the others are ordered to don frowning masks. The entire world press echoes the turn. In reality Stalin wishes to sell to the highest bidder the revolutionary thunderbolts which he dug out of the cellar and which he now brandishes in his fist, just as he sold the “defense of democracy” to Hitler for part of Poland and trusteeship over the Baltic states. The thunderbolts are a bluff. Whoever believes in them will find himself deceived as London and Paris were deceived during the negotiations with Moscow.

Before war produces a revolution it produces speculation on revolution. Even the conservative Chamberlain bases his plans on a kind of monarcho-democratic revolution in Germany. Instead of bombs he drops leaflets. It is striking how little the statesmen learned from the experience of the last war and how blind they are to the greatest events of history — wars and revolutions. To believe that a “moderate,” a “reasonable,” a “conservative” revolution against Hitler is possible in Germany is as absurd as the belief that it was possible to satisfy Hitler with the Sudeten mountains. In Germany only a socialist revolution is possible. Unlike Chamberlain, Stalin understands and fears this.

A totalitarian regime is by its very essence an iron hoop around a barrel of explosives. A totalitarian regime is necessary where the internal contradictions have reached the point of unbearable tension. That is why we can foresee that in the series of revolutions which the war cannot help but provoke, the totalitarian countries will be the first on the list. It is fantastic to imagine that Germany could be Sovietized from Moscow as was small and backward Galicia. For the bursting of the hoop of National Socialism tremendous explosions will be necessary. Millions of people will be set in motion. And revolutions are contagious. In the chain of political regimes the Stalin dictatorship is one of the weakest links.

But before revolution there is the war. During the next period Stalin will remain Hitler’s satellite. During the coming winter he will in all probability make no moves. With Finland he will conclude a compromise. He will seek another more important compromise with Japan against the United States. So long as the military position of Hitler remains favorable (and it will be so in any case during the first year of the war) Stalin will satisfy himself with what has already been attained. If and when Germany finds herself in a difficult situation, and that is inevitable but not so near, Stalin will try to cut loose from Hitler. He will, for example, Sovietize the Baltic countries and possibly ask for the independence of Hitler’s Poland in order to Sovietize it too, and he may become active in the Balkans.

However, all this is but the final convulsions of two totalitarian regimes. The military crash of Hitler will inevitably provoke a revolution in Germany and the consequences of this will be the overthrow of Stalin’s oligarchy in the USSR. Already at this early date these two occurrences loom as the most certain to materialize from the bloody chaos.

This sketch of course will be filled in with positive dates, concrete illustrations, some personal characterizations, and so on. The article will be from 3,000 to 3,500 words.